The 5 ridings I am watching

There are five ridings I am watching in this federal election.

•          Whitby (ON)
•          Etobicoke North (ON)
•          Calgary Heritage (AB)
•          North Vancouver (BC)
•          South Okanagan-West Kootenay (BC)

1.  Whitby/ON.  This is my home riding, and has been very deeply blue since Jim Flaherty ran for office in 2006; before this it was a Liberal riding.  Flaherty was great for Whitby; he brought investment into the town, and he represented the riding well in Ottawa.  He was one of the few MPs that could stand up to the leader and get away with it.  His relationship in Ottawa was unlike most of his peers.  With his passing and the subsequent by-election, our old mayor, Pat Perkins, took his seat last fall.  Since this time she appears to be a backbencher in Ottawa, with little voice into the Prime Minister's office; this I am not surprised - not because of her, but because of how Harper runs his government.  In the 2014 bi-election she won with 49% of the vote, but only 32%  of eligible voters cast their votes.  Since this time the Liberal candidate has lost ground to the NDP candidate, with what appears to be a vote split for 2015, which should give PC a clear win despite a diminishing Conservative base since Flaherty's last bid.   Two factors may change the tide for this riding:  (1) will the recent fall of NDP from the 3-party-race have an impact on the vote splitting, favouring the Liberals; and (2) will the social-media push to get couch-sitters off their asses and out to the polls favour the Liberals.

Projected:  Conservative (CPC- 49%, L- 33% ,  NDP- 14%,  GPC- 3% ).

2014 bi-election election:  Conservative /Perkins (CPC- 49%, L- 41%,  NPD- 8%,  GPC- 1%)   

Number of votes separating 1st and 2nd place:  2 999.  Or 4% of the abstained voters.

Abstained: 74 325 (68% of eligible voters)

2011 Full election:  Conservative / Flaherty (CPC- 59%, L-14% ,  NPD- 21%,  GPC- 5%)  

Number of votes separating 1st and 2nd place:  23 220. 

Abstained: 37 480 (37% of eligible voters).

2.  Etobicoke North/ON.  Toronto appears fairly Red-Orange in the polls, but I am curious whether the Ford-Nation voice will impact this corner of the city.  I'm also curious whether last weekend's rally (that the Ford brothers put on for Harper) will have a negative impact on Harper nationally.  I mean, with the attack ads on Trudeau about supporting legalization of marijuana, do you really want to be associated with the international "Crack Smoking Mayor" sensation?  Note that since the 2011 election the PCs have lost significant ground in this riding, at the expense of the Liberals.

Projected:  Liberal (CPC- 21%, L- 61% ,  NDP- 15%,  GPC- 3%).

Last election:  Liberal (CPC- 32%,  L- 43% ,  NPD- 24%,  GPC- 0%)  

Difference separating 1st and 2nd place: 3 308

Abstained last election:  29 416  (48% of eligible voters).

3. Calgary Heritage/AB.  In this 2015 campaign Harper, not the PCs, has been the target of the social media outcry.  Arguably the ABC (Anything But Conservative) campaign is really ABH (Anyone But Harper).  I am interested to see whether this translates into a hit against his local campaign.  Harper has also said that if he doesn't get a majority he will step down... does that mean a possible bi-election in this riding early next year?  Note that since 2011 he has lost ground, but still holds the majority.

Projected:  Conservative  (CPC- 64%, L- 20%,  NDP- 10%,  GPC- 3%). 

Last election:  Conservative (CPC- 74%, L- 7% ,  NDP- 12%,  GPC- 6%)  

Difference separating 1st and 2nd place: 36 175

Abstained last election:  36 779 (39% of voters) *as Calgary Southwest

4. North Vancouver/BC.  This one is due partly to a personal connection since it is my cousin running for the Liberals in this riding.  And if the polls are accurate he has a high probability of winning.  I am actually more interested in what he brings to Ottawa.  Jonathan was raised in an environment that promoted social responsibility, yet he has a depth of business leadership experience, as well as environmental responsibility through his work in green technologies.  It will be interesting to see this blend of orange (social responsibility), traditionally blue (business leadership) and green (environmental responsibility) brought forward in a red Liberal package to Parliament Hill.  I really do feel he will be an agent of change, helping to bring this country back to a proper balance of these ideals.  

Projected:  Liberal  (CPC- 30%, L- 49% ,  NDP- 11%,  GPC- 9%).

Last election:  Conservative (CPC- 48%, L- 30% ,  NDP- 17%,  GPC- 5% )  

Difference separating 1st and 2nd place:  11 311

Abstained last election:  28 431 (32%)

5. South Okanagan - West Kootenay /BC. Excluding Elizabeth May's riding, the riding of Victoria shows the highest support for the Green Party.  However, it is the riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay that is more interesting to watch.  While I don't expect to see a second seat won for the Greens, I am curious how constituents will vote here.  Vote splitting will only work against the long term goal of evolving the voting process, therefore it is better for the Greens to send their vote to Red/Orange... yet voting against Green has a negative impact in that it devalues their position.  This is really a case of "vote locally" versus "vote federally".

Projected:  too close to call (CPC- 33.8% , L- 21.9%, NDP-33.8% , GPC - 10.0% )

Last election:  Conservative (CPC- 45%, L- 7% ,  NDP- 39%,  GPC- 8% ) *redistributed  

Difference separating 1st and 2nd place (2011):  2 960

Abstained last election:  33 025 (37%)*

The Green Party has a sizeable voter base here, yet they risk handing the riding to PC because of vote splitting, thereby putting short term goals ahead of long term goals.  The Liberals here are making the same voting error, if their objective is to oust the Conservatives.

Further Green Party analysis.

In contrast, other areas where the Greens have made ground the lead candidate is far enough ahead that the impact of vote splitting is negligible.  Such is the case in Victoria/BC.  Here the NDP have locked up the seat, so it is safe for the Green voter base to support their party without risking long term goals.

Projected: NDP (CPC- 15% , L- 16%, NDP-40% , GPC - 28% ).

Other ridings significant to the Green Party (Projections for 2015):

Minor risk of vote splitting:

•          Esquimalt - Saanich - Sooke/BC  (CPC- 25% , L- 22%, NDP- 35% , GPC - 18%)
•          Nanaimo - Ladysmith /BC  (CPC- 28% , L- 19% , NDP- 36% , GPC -17% )
•          Thunder Bay - Superior North /ON  (CPC- 21, L- 27, NDP- 33, GPC- 19)

Area safe to vote Green in 2015:

•          Dufferin - Caledon/ON  (CPC-52% , L-25% , NDP- 11%, GPC - 14%)

Past results from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_federal_electoral_districts

Projections from: http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html (Oct 17th data)